🌊 Tuesday Bitcoin Flows

• Ethereum ETFs will launch next Tuesday, according to Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas.

• Larry Fink was interviewed about Bitcoin on CNBC, and said it’s an instrument to invest in “when you believe that countries are debasing their currencies.” So — it’s for everyone.

• Deutsche Bank published their June CPI Recap, saying that “With rents returning to pre-pandemic rates, the balance of the June

  inflation data are likely to qualify as a really good reading.”

• NYDIG released their Q2 report, with a detailed breakdown on everything that happened in Bitcoin this quarter.

• The American Dream is increasingly out of reach, per some somber survey data which shows that a third of the country thinks they’re missing out.

• JD Vance has been selected as Donald Trump’s running mate, and is now the Vice-Presidential Candidate. While not everyone loves the pick, he’s endorsed by Tech leaders like David Sacks and Balaji Srinivasan. Vance has a significant personal Bitcoin allocation, has previously indicated crypto-friendly views, and together with Donald Trump has formed a ‘pro-crypto ticket’.

Consistent redistribution over the past week from the Whales to the Sharks. We’ll see if that continues now that BTC seems to be catching a bid, Germany’s done selling, and the miners seem to be relaxing.

To give some more color on the miners, below is a chart showing Hash Ribbons, from Cryptoquant.

Quick explanation: when the 30 day moving average of Hash Rate dips below the 60 day moving average, it shows that hash is dropping really fast.

As in: unprofitable miners are giving up, unplugging, and liquidating their assets.

On the chart below, the ‘ribbons’ are those bright green lines, where the 30dma falls below the 60dma. As you can see, we’ve been in this period of miner ‘capitulation’ since early May.

However, if you zoom in reeaaally close, you can see that over the past five days or so, hash rate has begun to trend up again. Meaning the capitulation could be over.

Actually forget zooming — I’ll do it for you:

Great day to me a MSTR investor. And a COIN investor. Actually also a GLXY, HUT, MARA - whatever you get the idea. Everything pumped.

🥇Ark

Coming in first place on an action-packed Monday was: Ark with inflows of 1850 BTC ($117.2m).

🥈BlackRock

BlackRock was only just behind. They brought in 1840 BTC ($117m).

🥉Fidelity

Fidelity had a solid day too, with a healthy haul of 570 BTC ($36m).

🧮 Total

ETF investors have really got a head full of stream now. Monday was another blow out performance, with net inflows of 4646 BTC ($300m). Notable contributions also from Bitwise (240 BTC) and Invesco (122 BTC). Even Grayscale was net-zero on the day, managing to stave off its chronic bout of outflow-itis.

The Bagholders are back! 13F filings for Q2 are rolling in, and more of them than at the same point last quarter (still a month out from the deadline).

So, what are we learning about the ETF holders?

Here’s one: IMC Chicago. An investment firm with roughly $170b AUM. They’re traders — not ‘hodlers’. They aren’t managing your uncle’s retirement savings.

Which means they’re in the category of investor that provoked some skepticism in Q1:

• Won’t they just sell when the price goes down?

• They don’t believe in it

• They’re just here for the carry trade

And while it’s true that 13Fs don’t give us their entire position (we can’t see short positions, for example), we can nontheless see the change from one quarter to the next:

Definitely some strong fluctuations. The entire HODL position is gone, and most of FBTC. But on the other hand, massively increased in ARKB, and GBTC. With a net increase overall.

It’s too early to drawn conclusions, but they certainly weren’t scared away by the 20% BTC drawdown.

And finally, in today’s edition of ‘Reading Tea Leaves for Finance Nerds’:

The ‘market’ is now pricing in with 92% probably that the Fed will cut rates in September.

One day we’ll have a global economy that isn’t entirely predicated on what one council of unelected bureaucrats decides the price of money to be.

But until that day: fingers crossed for September.

Those are the Flows this Tuesday.

Thanks for reading, and I’ll see you tomorrow.

— Julian