🌊 Wednesday Bitcoin Flows

Your Daily Bitcoin Flows update

Good morning.

Welcome to Flow State.

Where the flows go, we follow.

Let’s dive in.…🌊🌊🌊

  • Jerome Powell testified at a Senate committee hearing, and said both that the economy is softening (bad), but also that lowering rates risks undoing the Fed’s ‘good work’ on inflation (bad). Expert hedging, as only the Fed Chair can.

  • The Chamber of Progress, a progressive Tech advocacy group, wrote a letter to Joe Biden urging him to make a pro-crypto shift because it “resonates strongly with young voters.” Personally I doubt Biden has ‘resonated’ with any young person since the Bee Gees were popular, but good luck guys.

  • Franklin Templeton published their monthly Digital Assets Bulletin, in which they provide an overview of the Bitcoin, Ethereum, and NFT markets.

  • Coinbase released their Monthly Outlook, in which they said, “our models identified US spot bitcoin ETF flows as the most important feature driving bitcoin performance over the past six months.”

  • BlackRock released their mid-year global outlook, and said the world is “undergoing a transformation on par with the Industrial Revolution.”

  • Senator Marsha Blackburn is now accepting Bitcoin and Crypto donations for her re-election campaign. The bar for giving Bitcoin away to politicians should be pretty high, though her colleague and long time Bitcoin advocate Sen. Cynthia Lummis says she’s the “real deal.”

More flip-flopping between Whales and Sharks on Tuesday.

As Ki Young Ju at Cryptoquant explains, there’s some still way to go before the miners ‘capitulate’ and will be done with their post-halving sell-off.

The chart below shows a metric called the Puell Multiple, which measures the ratio of the value of the BTC mined in one day, to the yearly average.

Historically, miner selling tends to keep going until we get to a ratio of about 0.4 (see highlighted on the chart).

Down day for the miners, with IREN, CORZ, and HUT taking the worst of it.

🥇BlackRock

BlackRock had another banger yesterday, bringing in 2134 BTC ($121m). IBIT now holds 312k BTC.

🥈Fidelity

Fidelity was fired up again as well. They had inflows of 1580 BTC ($91m). FBTC now holds 173k BTC, which is just under the all-time high they set about a month ago.

🔻Grayscale

It would have been too much to expect consecutive inflow days from Grayscale. They reversed the flow, sending out 650 BTC ($37.5m). 342.7k outflows since launch.

🧮 Total

Not sure about you, but I can sense some positive momentum gathering. The panic clouds are receding, and I think people realize that Mt. Gox and the German government aren’t so scary.

ETF buyers seem to think so, anyway. Net inflows of 3760 BTC ($216m) yesterday. Third strong inflow day in a row.

Let’s polish things off with new game I just invented call ‘Two Down, Two Up’. You’ll pick it up quickly.

First thing down: non-farm payroll figures, which for several months in a row have been revised down from the initial numbers announced.

I’m sure there’s a perfectly legitimate explanation, and that the totally-trustworthy Bureau of Labor Statistics wouldn’t be pulling any shenanigans in an election year…

Right. On to the second thing down: volume traded in Ethereum NFT markets. After reaching a high in January (people selling the monkey JPEGs they got for Christmas?), it’s been downhill since.

Now, first thing up: Crypto VC dealflow. After bottoming at the end of last year, it’s been two quarters in a row of more cash splashed on crypto startups. Those must be some high conviction bets!

And finally, the second thing up: the price of coffee! In fact, it’s now at an all time high.

I’m not usually an advocate of panic-buying, but let’s just say I’m probably heading down to Costco as soon as I hit publish today.

Those are the Flows this Wednesday.

Thanks for reading, and I’ll see you tomorrow.

— Julian

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