• Bloomberg surveyed Economists around the United States and found them 88% of them think the country is headed for a ‘soft landing’ within the next year. Unclear yet if the results will replicate.

• Donald Trump is reportedly going to launch a memecoin on Solana, according to Tech publication Pirate Wires. David Bailey of Bitcoin Magazine doesn’t think so - is “99% sure this is bullsh*t.” Ryan Selkis of Messari Crypto says it’s “50-50 it’s a Fed Op.” Standard day in Crypto.

• Theya’s Joe Consorti analyzes why US consumer confidence is tanking, and why the latest sentiment survey results came in so far under expectations.

• David Hirsch, head of the SEC’s Crypto Asset and Cyber Unit, has resigned. Hirsch led crypto Enforcement at the regulator.

• Tether has launched a gold-backed stablecoin pegged to the US Dollar, called Alloy.

• Paul Ryan, former Speaker of the House, wrote an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal arguing that ‘Crypto Could Stave Off a U.S. Debt Crisis’.

• Idaho’s Republican Party has officially made Bitcoin a part of its platform, opposing “regulation and/or excessive taxation of decentralized currencies such as Bitcoin…”

Lots of shuffling around going on with this price action, and it seems only the Fish and Sharks have grown as a result. Big trend reversal from the Whales.

Pretty good day for the miners yesterday.

🇺🇸 United States

🥇Bitwise

BITB was the sole source of inflows on Monday. They brought in 44 BTC ($2.9m).

🔻Fidelity

FBTC was the biggest loser yesterday, making it three massive outflow days in a row for them. Yesterday’s toll was 1390 BTC ($92m). Since Wednesday last week, they’ve lost 4.2k BTC ($280m).

🔻Ark

ARKB had another nasty day too. 750 BTC ($50m) out the door. That brings their 3 day tally to -2277 BTC ($151m).

🧮 Total

Big time outflows again to start the week. 2191 BTC was sent out yesterday ($146m). IBIT scored 0 net flows on the day, unusual for them. But even a BlackRock boost wouldn’t have turned things positive.

Oh, you don’t think anyone can make money in this market?

Don’t tell that to the former owner of Pudgy Penguin #7254, who sold the cartoon penguin NFT for 8.81 ETH ($29k) just last night.

The savvy seller managed to triple their initial investment, made back in 2021.

“But Julian” - I hear you object - “NFT markets are riddled with Wash Trading. The whole game is rigged by insiders luring suckers in by creating the false impression there’s actually demand for these things. There’s no way someone actually paid $30k for a picture of a penguin with an afro.”

Those sound like excuses to me. You need to get with the times. Update your priors. Drop the ego, and get your head in the game.

If you’re not willing to wash trade penguin pictures between 11 different wallets to get through this market, then you just don’t want it badly enough.

That’s the state of bitcoin flows for this Tuesday.

Thanks for reading, and I’ll see you tomorrow.

— Julian